Headshot of Jason Merrick

Jason Merrick


Area: Supply Chain Management and Analytics

  • Snead Hall
  • 301 W. Main Street
  • Box 844000
  • Richmond, VA, 23284-4000
  • Office: B4141


  • Decision Analysis
  • Maritime Risk Assessment
  • Supply Chain Simulation


  • Decision Analytics, Forecasting, Simulation.
  • Decision & Risk Analysis, Bayesian Statistics, Simulation.

Jason Merrick has worked on projects assessing oil spill and counter-terrorism risk as well as supply chain agility, design, and sustainability. His research has been published in leading journals like Production and Operations Management, the Journal of Operations Management, Management Science, and the Journal of the American Statistical Association, and he has received grants from the National Science Foundation, the Federal Aviation Administration, the United States Coast Guard, the American Bureau of Shipping, British Petroleum, Booz Allen Hamilton, Deloitte Consulting, and the Makah Tribal Council, amongst others. He has also worked on projects with Proctor & Gamble, Cummins, McKesson, McCormick, Bush Brothers, Takeda, Afton, and an NFL team. He is a former President of the Decision Analysis Society and has a bachelor's in mathematics and computation from Oxford University and a doctorate in operations research from George Washington University.


Published Intellectual Contributions
Journal Article
  • Saunders, L., Merrick, J. R., Autrry, C., Galbreth, M., Bradley, R. (2024). Managing product variety to increase sales in used automotive closed-loop supply chains. Production and Operations Management. DOI: 10.1177/10591478241234991
  • Merrick, J. R., Saunders, L., Autry, C., Holcomb, M. (2024). New product family demand planning: addressing SKU-level spread bias. (vol. 45(2)). Journal of Business Logistics. DOI: 10.1111/jbl.12373
  • Soule, D., Grushka-Cockayne, Y., Merrick, J. R. (2023). A Heuristic for Combining Correlated Experts When There Are Few Data. Management Science. DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2021.02009
  • Shockley, J., Merrick, J. R., Liu, X., Smith, J. (2023). How much do customer ordering practices drive medical supplies distribution (in)efficiency for primary care markets?. (12 ed., vol. 32, pp.3908-3930). Production and Operations Management. DOI: 10.1111/poms.14068
  • Stank, T., Goldsby, T., Dohmen, A., Merrick, J. R., Saunders, L. (2022). Applying agility to improve customer performance when supply and demand vary from core conditions. (vol. 52(8), pp.722-744). International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management. DOI: 10.1108/IJPDLM-07-2021-0298
  • Cook, E. L., Merrick, J. R. (2022). Technology Implementation at Capital One. (vol. 53(3), pp.173-246). INFORMS Journal on Applied Analytics. DOI: 10.1287/inte.2022.1135
  • Merrick, J. R., Dorsey, C. A., Wang, B., Grabowski, M., Harrald, J. R. (2022). Measuring Prediction Accuracy in a Maritime Accident Warning System. (vol. 32(1), pp.819-827). Production and Operations Management. DOI: 10.1111/poms.13581
  • Dohmen, A., Saunders, L., Merrick, J. R., Stank, T., Goldsby, T. (2022). When Preemptive Risk Mitigation is Insufficient: The Effectiveness of Continuity and Resilience Techniques During COVID-19. (vol. 32(5), pp.1529-1549). Production and Operations Management. DOI: 10.1111/poms.13677
  • Saunders, L. W., Merrick, J. R., Holcomb, M. (2021). Microdosing flexibility in an efficient supply chain. (vol. 67(3), pp.407-416). Journal of Operations Management. DOI: 10.1002/joom.1117
  • Saunders, L., Brooks, J. P., Merrick, J. R., Autry, C. (2020). Addressing Economic/Environmental Sustainability Tradeoffs in Procurement Episodes with Industrial Suppliers. (vol. 29(5), pp.1256-1269). Production and Operations Management. DOI: 10.1111/poms.13162
  • Dorsey, C., Wang, B., Grabowski, M., Merrick, J. R., Harrald, J. R. (2020). Self healing databases for predictive risk analytics in safety-critical systems. (vol. 63, pp.1-11). Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries. DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2019.104014
  • Syed, R., Merrick, J. R., Dhillon, G. S. (2019). Identity Protection Value Model: A Design Science Approach to Assess Value Gaps on Social Media. (vol. 50(3), pp.498-536). Decision Sciences. DOI: 10.1111/deci.12335
  • Salak Pay, B., Merrick, J. R., Song, Y. (2019). Stochastic Network Interdiction with Incomplete Preference. (vol. 73(1), pp.3-22). Networks. DOI: 10.1002/net.21831
  • Mazicioglu, D., Merrick, J. R. (2018). Behavioral Modeling of Adversaries with Multiple Objectives in Counter-terrorism. (vol. 38(5), pp.962-977). Risk Analysis. DOI: 10.1111/risa.12898
  • Leclerc, P., Merrick, J. R. (2016). Modeling Adversaries in Counter-terrorism Decisions Using Prospect Theory. (vol. 36(4), pp.681-693). Risk Analysis. DOI: 10.1111/risa.12254
  • Merrick, J. R., Butler, J., Morrice, D. (2015). Using Multiattribute Utility Theory to Avoid Bad Outcomes by Focusing on the Best Systems in Ranking and Selection. (vol. 9(3), pp.238-248). Journal on Simulation. DOI: 10.1057/jos.2014.34
  • Merrick, J. R., Boone, E., Krachey, M. (2014). A Hellinger distance approach to MCMC diagnostics. (vol. 84(4), pp.833-849). Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation. DOI: 10.1080/00949655.2012.729588
  • Merrick, J. R., Grabowski, M. (2014). Decision Performance and Safety Performance: A Value Focused Thinking Study in the Oil Industry. (vol. 11(2), pp.105-116). Decision Analysis. DOI: 10.1287/deca.2014.0291
  • Merrick, J. R., Parnell, G. S. (2011). A Comparative Analysis of PRA and Intelligent Adversary Methods for Counterterrorism Risk Management. (vol. 31(9), pp.1488-1510). Risk Analysis. DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01590.x
  • van Dorp, J., Merrick, J. R. (2011). On a risk management analysis of oil spill risk using maritime transportation system simulation. (vol. 187). DOI: 10.1007/s10479-009-0678-1
  • Grabowski, M., Ayyalasomayajula, P., Merrick, J. R., Mccafferty, D. (2010). Accident precursors and safety nets: leading indicators of tanker operations safety. (vol. 34(5), pp.405-425). DOI: 10.1080/03088830701585084
  • Merrick, J. R., McLay, L. A. (2010). Is Screening Cargo Containers for Smuggled Nuclear Threats Worthwhile?. (vol. 7(2), pp.155-171). Decision Analysis. DOI: 10.1287/deca.1100.0171
  • Grabowski, M., You, Z., Song, H., Wang, H., Merrick, J. R. (2010). Sailing on Friday: Developing the Link Between Safety Culture and Performance in Safety-Critical Systems. (vol. 40(2), pp.263-284). IEEE Transactions on Systems Man and Cybernetics Part A-Systems and Humans. DOI: 10.1109/TSMCA.2009.2035300
  • McLay, L. A., Foufoulides, C., Merrick, J. R. (2010). Using simulation-optimization to construct screening strategies for cervical cancer. (vol. 13(4), pp.294-318). Health Care Management Science. DOI: 10.1007/s10729-010-9131-x
  • Merrick, J. R. (2009). Bayesian Simulation and Decision Analysis: An Expository Survey. (vol. 6(4), pp.222-238). Decision Analysis. DOI: 10.1287/deca.1090.0151
  • Merrick, J. R. (2008). Getting the Right Mix of Experts. (vol. 5(1), pp.43–52). DOI: 10.1287/deca.1080.0108
  • Grabowski, M., Ayyalasomayajula, P., Merrick, J. R., Harrald, J. R., Roberts, K. (2007). Leading indicators of safety in virtual organizations. (vol. 45(10), pp.1013-1043). Safety Science. DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2006.09.007
  • Merrick, J. R., Harrald, J. R. (2007). Making decisions about safety in US ports and waterways. (vol. 37(3), pp.240-252). Interfaces. DOI: 10.1287/inte.1060.0258
  • Szwed, P., van Dorp, JR,, Merrick, J. R., Mazzuchi, T., Singh, A. (2006). A Bayesian paired comparison approach for relative accident probability assessment with covariate information. (vol. 169(1), pp.157-177). European Journal of Operational Research. DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2004.04.047
  • Merrick, J. R., Hardin, J. R., Walker, R. (2006). Partnerships in training. (vol. 36(4), pp.359-368). Interfaces. DOI: 10.1287/inte.1060.0202
  • Merrick, J. R., van Dorp, R, (2006). Speaking the truth in maritime risk assessment. (vol. 26(1), pp.223-237). Risk Analysis. DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2006.00708.x
  • Merrick, J. R., Parnell, G., Barnett, J., Gracia, M. (2005). A Multiple-Objective Decision Analysis of Stakeholder Values to Identify Watershed Improvement Needs. (vol. 2(1), pp.44–57). DOI: 10.1287/deca.1050.0033
  • Merrick, J. R., van Dorp, J., Singh, A. (2005). Analysis of Correlated Expert Judgments from Extended Pairwise Comparisons. (vol. 2(1), pp.17-29). DOI: 10.1287/deca.1050.0031
  • Merrick, J. R., Soyer, R., Mazzuchi, T. (2005). Are maintenance practices for railroad tracks effective?. (vol. 100(469), pp.17-25). Journal of the American Statistical Association. DOI: 10.1198/016214504000002104
  • Merrick, J. R., van Dorp, JR,, Dinesh, V. (2005). Assessing uncertainty in simulation-based maritime risk assessment. (vol. 25(3), pp.731-743). Risk Analysis. DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00616.x
  • Merrick, J. R., Grabowski, M., Ayyalasomayajula, P., Harrald, JR, (2005). Understanding organizational safety using value-focused thinking. (vol. 25(4), pp.1029-1041). Risk Analysis. DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00654.x
  • Merrick, J. R., Garcia, M. (2004). Using value-focused thinking to improve watersheds. (vol. 70(3), pp.313-327). Journal of the American Planning Association. DOI: 10.1080/01944360408976381
  • Merrick, J. R., Soyer, R., Mazzuchi, T. (2003). A Bayesian semiparametric analysis of the reliability and maintenance of machine tools. (vol. 45(1), pp.58-69). Technometrics. DOI: 10.1198/004017002188618707
  • Merrick, J. R., van Dorp, J., Blackford, J., Shaw, G., Harrald, J., Mazzuchi, T. (2003). A traffic density analysis of proposed ferry service expansion in San Francisco Bay using a maritime simulation model. (vol. 81(2), pp.119-132). DOI: 10.1016/S0951-8320(03)00054-1
  • Merrick, J. R., van Dorp, JR,, Mazzuchi, T., Harrald, JR,, Spahn, J., Grabowski, M. (2002). The Prince William Sound risk assessment. (vol. 32(6), pp.25-40). Interfaces. DOI: 10.1287/inte.
  • van Dorp, JR,, Merrick, J. R., Harrald, JR,, Mazzuchi, T., Grabowski, M. (2001). A risk management procedure for the Washington state ferries. (vol. 21(1), pp.127-142). Risk Analysis. DOI: 10.1111/0272-4332.211096
  • Parnell, G., Metzger, R., Merrick, J. R., Eilers, R. (2001). Multiobjective Decision Analysis of Theater Missile Defense Architectures. (vol. 4(1), pp.24-34). DOI: 10.1002/1520-6858(2001)4:1%3C24::AID-SYS3%3E3.0.CO;2-M
  • Merrick, J. R., van Dorp, J., Harrald, J., Mazzuchi, T., Spahn, J., Grabowski, M. (2000). A Systems Approach to Managing Oil Transportation Risk in Prince William Sound. (vol. 3(3), pp.128-142). DOI: 10.1002/1520-6858(200033)3:3%3C128::AID-SYS2%3E3.0.CO;2-R
  • Grabowski, M., Merrick, J. R., Harrald, JR,, Mazzuchi, T., van Dorp, JR, (2000). Risk modeling in distributed, large-scale systems. (vol. 30(6), pp.651-660). IEEE Transactions on Systems Man and Cybernetics Part A-Systems and Humans. DOI: 10.1109/3468.895888
  • Harrald, J., Mazzuchi, T., Spahn, J., van Dorp, J., Merrick, J. R., Shrestha, S., Grabowski, M. (1998). Using system simulation to model the impact of human error in a maritime system. (vol. 30(1-2), pp.235-247). DOI: 10.1016/S0925-7535(98)00048-4
Research Report
  • Fišar, M., Greiner, B., Huber, C., Katok, E., Ozkes, A., Brooks, J. P., Liu, X., Merrick, J. R. (2023). Reproducibility in Management Science (Note: Member of the Management Science Reproducibility Collaboration). Management Science. DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2023.03556